Judging from the results of a recent political consultant’s survey of Ceres voters, a one-cent sales tax measure could be headed to the ballot in the November 2026 election. Chances are it would pass.

The city is buoyed by the results of a Community Issues survey, conducted June 14-24 by FM3 Research that show a sales tax measure would pass. The firm found that 62 percent of respondents indicated they’d support the measure when a simple majority vote is all that’s needed.

Such a ballot measure likely would not occur until the next city election in 2026 when the council terms of James Casey and Rosalinda Vierra expire.

City Manager Doug Dunford, who is scrambling to find ways to avert a budget crisis next year, is encouraged by the survey results.

“Yeah, it’s encouraging but, you know, there’s a lot that can happen between now and voter day and the turnout is going to be,” said Dunford. “We do need to do something because we have a lot of money going out. It’s getting harder and harder to maintain services with less and less money. That’s one of the options we are looking and we’re looking at other things we can do.”

Dunford said a locally approved sales tax would stay in Ceres and guaranteed not to be siphoned off by the state.

The tax burden would not necessarily fall on Ceres residents exclusively – only people who shop in Ceres. Dunford noted, for example, that approximately 85 percent of the sales at the Ceres Gateway Center are made by folks who live out or the city or travel up and down Highway 99.

He said that an infusion of $9.4 million per year would be a “game changer” for the city because, allowing the city to hire recruit and retain police officers with a more competitive salary and benefits package.”

He said while on paper Ceres Police is supposed to have 50 officers on the streets, there are three vacancies currently, six are out on injury or sick leave and three positions are in training.

Additional tax revenue would also allow the city to hire more workers for parks maintenance, which some in the survey say is lacking.

“We can increase the Police Department and be able to do the things we want to do, possibly a real time crime center or bringing back the Street Crimes unit to start targeting some of the problem areas we’re starting to see develop with Modesto.”

Dunford also remains hopeful that the Maverik project becomes a reality once a lawsuit staged by a competing businessman is resolved. The city believes it can benefit from Maverik to the tune of $700,000 in taxes annually.

He maintains Maverik won’t increase truck traffic since it’s already passing down Mitchell Road to the industries in southeast Modesto but able to capture sales and sales tax dollars from those truckers.

FM3 Research recommends that the city undertake a “robust community engagement effort” designed to solicit additional community input. Once that engagement is wrapped up, the team suggests a follow-up community survey next summer. If it appears voters are still willing to approve an added sales tax, the city could place a sales tax increase measure on the city’s regularly scheduled municipal election.

The survey suggests that 73% of respondents agree that Ceres needs additional funds to provide the level of services residents want and need. The majority of those surveyed is aware of the existing half-cent sales tax in Measure H approved by voters in 2007 and understand the city will be forced to make cuts to essential local services without additional revenue.

The survey asked respondents to weigh in on several key problems facing Ceres. Topping the list is inflation and rising prices (80 percent said extremely serious or very serious). The cost of living received a rating of 70 percent. Down the list are the issues of homelessness (74 percent), government waste and inefficiency (60 percent), the cost of housing (62 percent), gangs and drugs (64 percent), and potholes and deteriorating city streets (62 percent).

Three in four think Ceres has a significant need for additional funds to provide city services, including four in ten who characterize the level of need as “great.”

Respondents were asked to read a simulated local ballot measure for a tax hike and how they would vote.

The sample ballot measure presented in the survey read as follows: “CERES EMERGENCY RESPONSE, COMMUNITY SAFETY, STREET REPAIRS MEASURE. Shall the ordinance to hire/ retain qualified police officers; maintain firefighter/ paramedic/911 emergency response/traffic safety services; repair streets/potholes; clear encampments/ address homelessness; improve parks/playgrounds; maintain youth recreation, senior programs and other General Fund services by establishing a 1¢ sales tax providing approximately $9,400,000 annually until ended by voters, requiring independent audits, public spending disclosure, all funds used locally, be adopted?” Sixty-two percent claim they would support the measure with 38 percent saying definitely yes, 20 percent probably yes and four percent undecided but leaning yes.

On the opposing side, 27 percent said they would definitely vote no, four percent probably no and two percent undecided but leaning no.

Broken down by category, women tend to be more supportive of a tax hike compared to men (64 percent to 59 percent). Democrats appear more receptive to a tax increase compared to Republicans (67 percent to 52 percent). Also, renters were more supportive or a tax measure compared to homeowners (65 versus 59 percent).

If such a measure passes, those surveyed gave opinions as to priorities to be given:

• Maintaining emergency 911 response times;

• Preventing gang activity coming from nearby cities;

• Hiring and retaining qualified police officers;

• Clearing encampments and addressing homelessness;

• Maintaining police officer patrols;

• Attracting businesses and jobs;

• Maintaining anti-gang and anti-drug crime prevention programs;

• Maintaining essential city services;

• Maintaining police traffic safety enforcement;

• Preventing cuts to essential city services;

• Supporting local small businesses;

• Repairing potholes and streets;

• Upgrading bulletproof vests, body cameras and other essential police equipment;

• Stabilizing the City’s budget;

• Maintaining senior services, including meals-on-wheels and health screenings;

• Upgrading 911 communications equipment;

• Maintaining parks and playgrounds.

The additional revenue for any sales tax increase would be welcome relief to city officials who have been dipping into dwindling reserves over the past several years. Relief came when the city had federal COVID relief funds (ARPA) but with those funds exhausted, the city had to borrow $2 million to make its current budget plan work.

The complete survey results are available on the city’s website at https://www.ceres.gov/DocumentCenter/View/8001/CityofCeresSurveyPublicSummaryFinal_2025