Betting that President Donald Trump will succeed in getting Big Oil to drill off the coast of California is almost as smart as betting everything you own on Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez being the Republican nominee for the White House in 2028.

What brings this up is Trump serving up a political softball ball that Gov. Gavin Newsom preceded to knock out of the park.

The political softball?

Trump opening up oil production off the coast of California for oil production.

In what dimension does Trump think that will fly?

It’s not the fact that usually reliable polling by the Public Policy Institute of California shows that oil drilling off of the Golden State is opposed by Californians — 82 percent of the Democrats, 70 percent of the independents, and 43 percent of the Republicans.

That in itself clearly wouldn’t get Trump to back off.

But here’s the problem: What oil company in its right mind would invest billions into developing oil wells only to have the rug pulled out from under them in 2028 or 2036?

For the record, Trump isn’t the only one operating in another political reality when it comes to oil production in California.

Newsom, who in an official press release on Nov. 20 stated “Trump’s idiotic plan endangers our coastal economy and communities and hurts the well-being of Californians,” apparently sees two Californians — the coast he wants to save from oil exploration, and the San Joaquin Valley that is dispensable.

Let’s go back to September 2021. Newsom directed the California Air Resources Board to basically put in motion a strategy that would end all oil pumping in California by 2045.

It didn’t take Newsom long to fall off the wagon. Four years later this past September, Newsom channeled Trump’s “drill baby, drill” mantra.

Newsom signed legislation cutting red tape to allow up to 2,000 new oil wells to drill annually in Kern County through 2036.

This is the same governor who in previous years stood in Los Angeles County neighborhoods with oil wells behind him vowing to pull the plug on them to address growing health concerns of those living nearby.

Newsom, for the record, came to the rescue by getting a law passed that shuts down most of the Inglewood pumping in L.A. County by 2030.

Freely translated, LA lives matter while those in the San Joaquin Valley are collateral damage.

What gives with Newsom? Simple answer, it’s a case of severe and incurable Potomac Fever.

Wait, you say, doesn’t Newsom want to position himself as the anti-Trump?

Well, yes. And that is the problem.

Newsom can’t afford to have $7 gasoline pumping at California fueling stations in the middle of his 2028 race for the White House.

It explains why Newsom did a 180 from his show of solidarity with climate change warriors and the unhealthy kids of Kern County a little over two years ago that he would make sure not one more oil well is ever drilled there.

What a difference a couple of years make.

Greenhouse gas is in retreat.

High-speed rail is going to be up and running between Los Angeles and San Francisco by Christmas.

Elon Musk is going to hire New York Mayor Elect Zohran Mamdani as the next Tesla CEO.

And an honest-to-goodness unicorn is going to win next year’s Kentucky Derby.

Actually, it’s a bit more pedestrian than that.

The plug, thanks to Newsom policies, is being pulled on two of the state’s last 16 remaining oil refineries.

California’s home-grown oil production is dropping 15 percent a year.

That’s faster than the annual 5 percent drop off Sacramento politicians estimated gas consumption has to drop on a yearly basis between now and 2040 to meet the “national” climate goals of California.

And to replace that lost gasoline production, more and more oil is being imported to California.

But here’s the catch. Not only does such long-distance transport of crude oil add to pollution, but the state’s ports are almost at capacity for moving oil.

All of this adds up to bad news could be on the way for a Newsom.

Economists up and down the state are predicting gas will hit $7 a gallon within a year or so – bad timing for someone who wants to move into the White House in 2029.

Is your head spinning as fast as a gas pump whirling when you fill up?

Wait, there’s more.

Newsom signed legislation that also undermines the Holy Grail of the California clean air movement.

Are you sitting down? If gasoline prices spike for 30 days or more — or the governor thinks they will — he now has the authority to suspend the use of the summer blend of reformulated gas.

You read that right. Newsom now has the power to suspend the very thing credited with reducing greenhouse gas the most over the past 40 years.

What is a little more greenhouse gas — especially if it impacts poor kids in Kern County instead of the cocktail set in Santa Barbara — so it doesn’t undermine Newsom’s presidential aspirations.

Such a move would benefit Californians who would first take severe economic hits from the state’s climate change policies that are, to put it in simplistic terms, a bit of overkill.

Green policies have always added cost to the price of goods.

Like it or not, that’s the way it works, especially when you force things ahead of the market.

The real question is why now?

If you’re a cynic, you’d say Newsom wants to make 48 his lucky number.

If you’re not a cynic, you’d say Newsom is being pragmatic.

Either way, climate change is not at the top of the agenda in Sacramento these days.

Newsom’s bid to reduce the pain to Californians in a presidential election cycle will, according to the state’s experts, lead to more smog and pollution that damages people’s health.

And the process of adding more wells in Kern County, by Newsom’s own words, will make it less healthy by children in the poorest part of California.

After all, what’s more cases of poor kids in Bakersfield getting asthma if it helps send the unmasked man from the French Laundry to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue?

—  This column is the opinion of Dennis Wyatt, and does not necessarily represent the opinions of The Courier or 209 Multimedia. He may be reached at dwyatt@mantecabulletin.com