The mainstream media and Democrat Party are banking on a blue wave this November. The 2016 election year was an embarrassment for them as they took a beating at the polls. Now they are hoping if they say “blue wave” enough, it will do two things. First, galvanize their base into turning out for the election, and second to depress voter turnout of the Republicans. If both happen, the Democrats can likely take back Congress and impeach the president for no reason, other than Hillary Clinton didn’t win. However, there is a flaw in their logic. Once again, they are counting their seats before the votes have even been cast.
Yes, history favors the opposition party in off-year elections. The party that takes the White House typically loses seats and sometimes one or both chambers of Congress the very next election. That would be likely except the Senate map does not favor the Democrats. The left is defending 26 seats including 10 seats in states Trump won, of which several Trump won by large margins. The Republicans are only defending 9 seats, 8 of which are in states Trump won.
But the latest Senate polls show if the election were held today, Republicans might keep the Senate after all and possibly pick up a few seats. Now, why might that be?
Apparently, the media and the left are not even looking at the polls of what is important to the voters. For the last two months, the two leading subjects on the minds of voters has been immigration and government maleficence. President Trump and the Republican Party are leading the charge on both issues with the opposition wanting open borders and government run amok. Not a winning message for Democrats.
And what is perhaps most important in House races is the phrase, “all politics is local.” That is good news for the Republicans. The Republicans are the party that put extra money in the pockets of the voter, the Republicans are also the party that wants to get MS-13 killers off the street, and the Republicans are also the party that reduced regulations for that new business to open up down the street. What are their opponents offering? A pro-MS-13 anti-paycheck message.
The majority of the media is making the mistake of reporting national popularity polls as if that means something on the local level. How does taking the opinion of a single mother in California compare to a father of two in Texas? There is no way to get an accurate measurement of voter sentiment by measuring the whole country as one blob. The more accurate way is to do tracking polls, like the LA Times/USC and IBD/TIPP polls, the only two major surveys that predicted a Trump win.
Not incidentally, the latest IBD/TIPP poll has the direction of the country and quality of life over 50 percent. In fact, all metrics for the Presidential Leadership Index are significantly higher than when President Trump took power.
One must remember, the same people saying the Republicans were going to get destroyed in 2016, are the same people saying the Republicans are going to get destroyed in 2018. These are also the same people that said Republicans need to pander to illegal immigrants in the 2012 autopsy. Then candidate Trump blasted their advice and ran his own campaign and won the race no one said he could win.
Now the media and left are holding out for Mueller’s report, hoping it will be an October surprise that will sink the GOP. They should be careful what they wish for. The President is also capable of generating plenty of October surprises. As the investigations in Congress continue to show government corruption, the President has the power to release the documents the world has been waiting to see on how the FBI’s Russia collusion probe really originated. Is the President waiting until October to bombard the media and Democrats with document after document to prove he was right, the entire month of October? Mueller can drop one October surprise, but the President can drop 31.
The only thing that can blow this opportunity for the Republican Party is to grant illegal immigration amnesty in the upcoming budget battle. President Trump won by listening to the people, and the people are tired of open borders. Congress must not give in to the amnesty crowd, or perhaps they will face a wave election in November. Congress must follow the President’s lead if they want to win in November and quit listening to the people that were wrong in 2016. They were wrong for a reason.
Printus LeBlanc is the Legislative Director for Americans for Limited Government.