Gavin Newsom’s no-holds barred embracing of the absolute greenest green agenda possible for California is coming back to potentially take a big bite out of his political hide.

This is not conjecture. It’s the governor himself who is telegraphing loud and clear that the state may have pushed the envelope a little bit too far and too fast when it comes to green policies.

Last week, Newsom sent his Energy Commission a message to basically make up and play nice with the oil companies.

In Newsom’s own words, it’s essential “refiners continue to see the value in serving the California market” and to “reinforce the state’s openness to a collaborative relationship and our firm belief that Californians can be protected from price spikes and refiners can profitably operate in California — a market where demand for gasoline will still exist for years to come.”

Just last year, Newsom signed a law giving the same Energy Commission carte blanche to micromanage refinery production and refined gasoline storage.

Newsom stated at the time, “They (the oil companies) buy all these ads saying somehow it’s California’s fault. They’ve been manipulating you. They’ve been lying to you.”

No, the governor is not channeling Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde. He’s been confronted with reality. California in the next few years is going to lose 20 percent of its refinery capacity but it’s not going to lose 20 percent of its gas powered vehicles. Toss in the fact there are few refineries outside of California with the ability to blend gasoline to the state’s standards and you have a textbook Economics 101 problem.

It means too many drivers of gas-powered cars trying to fill up with a shrinking amount of available gasoline. That means higher prices.

It’s on top of an even tighter low-carbon fuel standard rule that will be drastically tighter than in the other 49 states that the California Air Resources Board is in the process of requiring of oil refineries.

The state agency, not the oil industry, predicts the rule will add 47 cents to a gallon of gas in California later this year.

Toss that in with the estimate by energy experts in both the private and public sector that the pending closures of refineries Valero and Phillips 66 operate in California within the next two years will add another $1 per gallon due to the supply squeeze.

As of Sunday, the American Automobile Association indicated the average price of a gallon of gasoline in California was $4.78 a gallon.

Add a $1 plus 47 cents to that and by the end of 2027, $6.25 a gallon gasoline is a strong possibility.

So why are the two refineries closing down? Basically, because Newsom last year signed a bill that the California Legislature passed turned the Energy Commission loose on the oil companies –a move that comes on top of more and more regulations.

And let’s not forget the year 2035. That’s when California will start banning the sale of new vehicles that aren’t zero emission.

There will still be gas-powered cars on the roads but gasoline demand will be shrinking due to the edict of Sacramento.

Yet, Newsom and the green cartel keep adding more and more regulations that require substantial investments in refineries to keep operating in California.

It is why Valero announced last week it intends to cease operations at its massive refinery in Benicia by the end of April 2026. The company also said the future operating status of a Valero refinery in Los Angeles is also on the table. That is on top of Phillip 66’s previous announcement it was closing a Los Angeles refinery in response to Newsom giving the Energy Commission power to regulate refineries’ profit margins and how much refined gas they store at any given time.

This will make California motorists more vulnerable to wild price swings on top of the prospect of $6.25 gasoline by the end of 2027.

That’s because scheduled maintenance work needed to keep refineries operating safely and efficiency will have greater impacts on supply.

So will the annual switch over from winter to summer blends as required under California’s reformulated gas mandate that has significantly cleaned the state’s air in the Central Valley and Los Angeles Basin.

Then there are the wild cards.

A fire at a Bay Area refinery in February caused prices to rise 35 cents a gallon due to temporary supply shortages while repairs were made. Newsom called that incident “price manipulation.”

You’d think that Newsom’s involvement with PlumpJack Group before he became governor would have helped him understand the correlation between demand and supply and its impact on prices.

PlumpJack owns a number of wineries and vineyards. If a demand for a wine exceeds its supply, it causes prices to rise. And if there is a shortfall in a particular wine grape crop that produces vintages popular with consumers, it causes prices to rise.

Newsom benefited handsomely financially by the very economic principles driving gas prices that he has been demonizing for years.

But there is one big difference. Edicts by the state of California, and not the market, will be forcing gas prices up $1.47 a gallon.

That is where Newsom has a political problem that could seriously hamper his ambitions for the White House in 2028.

At the end of the day, people get the reasons for most rising prices even if they don’t like paying the bill.

But when it is government polices deemed untouchable by those in power because of 100 percent allegiance to an agenda that are causing prices to soar, in this case the green-at-all-costs folk, most vote with a vengeance at the ballot box.

The flight of the oil refineries is the end result of Newsom’s actions.

No one in their right mind would invest significantly in California refineries given the state has  basically set in motion policies to ultimately drive them out of business.

The faster the numbers whirl on a gas pump, the more hits Newsom and his political ambitions will take.

Newsom, for better or worse, is the face of California’s green agenda and its war on the oil companies.

—  This column is the opinion of Dennis Wyatt, and does not necessarily represent the opinions of The Courier or 209 Multimedia. He may be reached at dwyatt@mantecabulletin.com