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Recall election signals growing trouble for Democrats in 2022
Catherine Mortensen
Catherine Mortensen

The special election to determine the fate of Gov. Gavin Newsom appeared to be a victory for Democrats on the surface. But the Market Research Foundation, a free-market think tank, found that exit polling contains three substantial warnings to Democrats.

From the Market Research Foundation analysis:

One: Non-college whites moved further away from the Democratic Party.  

The educational divide continued to widen, with non-college whites shifting substantially away from Democrats. Exit polls show Newsom lost 10 percentage points with non-college voters compared to 2018.

Exit polls also show non-college whites voted to recall Newsom 55% to 45%, while college-educated whites voted not to recall him 70% to 30%. Voters who had never attended college supported the recall 52% to 48%, while voters with some college up to an advanced degree opposed the recall.

These numbers are troubling to a Democratic Party hoping to rebuild inroads with non-college whites.

Two: Newsom lost ground with Hispanics compared to 2018.   

California Hispanics have been revolting against Democratic leadership in increasing numbers, helping to flip four House seats into Republican control last year.

Exit polls show a full 40% of California Hispanics supported the recall of Gov. Newsom on Tuesday.

These numbers are more concerning when compared to the share of the Hispanic vote Newsom received in 2018. Back then, Newsom won 64% of Hispanics, and lost 35% to Republican John Cox.

This data indicates Newsom has lost four to five points with Hispanics since 2018. Newsom’s dwindling Hispanic support coincides with Biden’s own loss of support.

Three: Biden’s numbers are falling everywhere, and views of Biden are highly predictive of how people will vote.

President Biden’s favorable numbers in California have plummeted an average of 12 points since January. Now, California still gives Biden a fairly high overall approval rating of 58%, but that is down from a high of 70% in January.

Exit polls show how voters feel about Biden was highly predictive of how they voted in the recall. Those who voted against the recall had a net favorable view of Biden, while those who voted for the recall had a net unfavorable view of Biden.

This is unsurprising, but it signals that heading into the mid-terms, how voters feel about Biden is likely to be highly correlated to their vote choice, and Biden’s approval rating has been tanking all over the country.

Biden sat at an approval rating of 53% in January according to YouGov, and that is down to just 42% according to the latest YouGov poll.

When broken out by demographic group, it is easy to see where Biden is losing support the most. Since January, Biden has lost ten points with both college-educated and non-college educated white men. Among college educated white men, Biden’s approval fell from 50% in January to 40% this month, while among non-college educated white men, his approval fell from 40% in January to just 30% this month.

Among college-educated white women, Biden is down just one point, from 56% in January to 55% in early September. Among non-college white women Biden is down 9 points, from 42% in January to 33% in early September.

Among Hispanics, Biden’s support has tanked 16 points, from a high of 61% in January to just 45% as of early September.  Biden has also lost 12 points with Blacks, going from 77% in January to 65% early this month.

Biden’s support from voters under thirty fell a panic-worthy 22 points, from a lukewarm 56% in January to an alarming 34% in September.

Biden’s approval numbers with Independents weren’t much to boast about to start with, but he’s lost another six points, going from 43% in January to 37% in September.

The exit polls from California confirm the trend we’ve seen in American politics for a number of years: the Democrat party represents the interests and values of the elites and not the middle-class. The party’s radical agenda is also alienating Hispanic Americans. White men in particular are rejecting the Democrat policies. That makes sense because the Democrats continue to put a target on the backs of white men in the country.

While the election results in California certainly were disappointing for Americans who are fighting for limited government and free markets, Democrats would be making a big mistake if they take the results to mean Americans support their policies. We don’t.

Biden’s presidency is a train wreck of epic proportions. He has destroyed key relationships with world leaders, emboldened our enemies, alienated our allies, opened our borders and is in the process blowing up our economy. To say nothing about his shredding of the Constitution.

Catherine Mortensen is vice president of Communications at Americans for Limited Government.